Linking SLEUTH Urban Growth Modeling to Multi Criteria Evaluation for a Dynamic Allocation of Sites to Landfill

Taking timely measures for management of the natural resources requires knowledge of the dynamic environment and land use practices in the rapidly changing postindustrial world. We used the SLUETH urban growth modeling and a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique to predict and allocate land available to landfill as affected by the dynamics of the urban growth. The city is Gorgan, the capital of the Golestan Province of Iran. Landsat TM and ETM+ data were used to derive past changes that had occurred in the city extent. Then we employed slope, exclusion zones, urban areas, transportation network and hillshade layer of the study area in the SLEUTH modeling method to predict town sprawl up to the year 2050. We applied weighted linear combination technique of the MCE to define areas suitable for landfill. Linking the results from the two modeling methods yielded necessary information on the available land and the corresponding location for landfill given two different scenarios of town expansion up to the year 2050. These included two scenarios for city expansion and three scenarios for waste disposal. The study proved the applicability of the modeling methods and the feasibility of linking their results. Also, we showed the usefulness of the approach to decision makers in proactively taking measures in managing the likely environment change and possibly directing it towards more sustainable outcomes. This also provided a basis for dynamic land use allocation with regards to the past, present and likely future changes.